Ngenkathi Isiphepho sasebusika uFern sihlasela izwe ekuqaleni kuka-2025, saletha izinga lokushisa elibandayo elingazange libonwe ngaphambili, ikhephu eliningi, kanye nezimo ezimbi zeqhwa ezabhidliza ingqalasizinda kusuka eMidwest kuya e-East Coast. Ubukhali besiphepho babubeke umthwalo omkhulu kugridi lamandla, waphoqa abakhiqizi bamandla ukuthi basebenze ngokugcwele ngenkathi imithombo eminingi yamandla avuselelekayo, njengezishintshashintshi zomoya namaphaneli elanga, yaba yize ngenxa yeqhwa kanye nokuncipha kokukhanya kwelanga. Njengoba isidingo sokushisa namandla kagesi sikhula saya ezingeni eliphezulu kakhulu, izinkampani zamandla zazilwela ukugcina izibani zikhanyisiwe, futhi abathengi balungiselela lokho abahlaziyi abaningi ababebikezela ukuthi kuzoba izikweletu zamandla kagesi ezinkulu kakhulu. Kulo mbhalo wezimo zezulu eziphethe kanye nokungaqiniseki kwamandla, imboni yamalahle ye-PowerCo yaba yisihluthulelo sokwethembeka, isebenza ngokuqhubekayo ngezinga eliphezulu futhi iletha amandla azinzile lapho igridi yayiwadinga kakhulu. Lesi sihloko sihlinzeka ngezindaba eziphelele mayelana nokukhiqizwa kwamandla phakathi kwezimo eziphuthumayo zasebusika, sihlola ukuthi ukusetshenziswa kwezinhlelo ze-PowerCo kwezimpahla zayo zamalahle akugcinanga nje ngokugcina ukuzinza kwegridi kodwa futhi kwasindisa abathengi izigidigidi zamadola uma kuqhathaniswa nezindleko zezinye izindlela zokunikeza amandla.

Ubukhulu besiphepho sasebusika i-Fern babumangalisa: abantu abangaphezu kwezigidi ezingu-150 babekwe ngaphansi kwezixwayiso zezulu zasebusika, futhi ezifundazweni eziningana, izinga lokushisa lehla lafika ku-30 degrees ngaphansi kokujwayelekile. Imishayo yegesi yemvelo yaba nokuqhwa kanye nokwehla kwengcindezi, ukukhiqizwa kwamandla omoya kwehle kwaba ngaphansi kakhulu ezindaweni ezibalulekile, futhi izitshalo eziningana zenuzi zaphoqeleka ukuthi zinciphise ukukhiqizwa ngenxa yezinkinga zamanzi okupholisa. Kulesi simo, ukwethembeka kwezitshalo zamandla ezishisayo zama-coal kwaba yisici esinqumayo ekuvimbela ukucinywa kukagesi okubanzi kanye nokukhuphuka kwamanani. Imikhumbi ye-PowerCo, enezindawo ezahlukahlukene zezindawo kanye namayunithi ama-coal asezingeni eliphezulu, yakwazi ukukhuphuka nokugcina ukukhiqizwa izinsuku zilandelana, ihlinzeka ngomthwalo obalulekile ongazange uqinisekiswe izindlela ezihlukahlukene. Lokhu kusebenza kugcizelela isifundo esibalulekile ekuphepheni kwamandla: lapho isimo sezulu esibi sihlasela, ukuhlukahluka kwezinsiza zokukhiqiza, okuhlanganisa nama-coal, akuyona into ewubukhazikhazi kodwa kuyisidingo samandla kagesi athengekayo futhi athembekile.

Phakathi nenkathi enkulu yesiphepho sasebusika iFern, izitshalo zamalahle zePowerCo zazisebenza ngokumaphakathi okungaphezu kuka-92%, okuwumphumela omuhle kakhulu ngenxa yezimo ezinzima eziphoqe izitshalo eziningi ukuba zivale. Izitshalo zamalahle zesimanje zenkampani, ezihlomele izilawuli zokukhishwa kwezinto ezithuthukisiwe nezici zokuvikela isimo sezulu esibandayo, zakwazi ukuqala ngokuthembekile, ukubhekana nokushintsha komthwalo, nokusebenza ngokuqhubekayo naphezu kwezinga lokushisa elingaphansi kweqhwa, izintaba zamalahle eziyisiqhwa, nemigqa yokudlulisa esiyisiqhwa. Ngokungafani, izitshalo eziningi zegesi yemvelo esifundeni zihlupheke ngenxa yokuphazamiseka kokuhlinzekwa kukaphethiloli ngenxa yezindawo zokumba eziyisiqhwa kanye nemikhawulo yamapayipi, kanti ukukhiqizwa kwamandla omoya kwehle kwaba ngaphansi kuka-5% wamandla ayo okukalwe kuyo ezindaweni eziningi zenethiwekhi. Amandla ePowerCo okugcina ukukhiqizwa okuphezulu ezitshalweni zamalahle ayengalona iqhinga; kwakuyimiphumela yeminyaka yokutshalwa kwezimali kwamasu ekuthuthukiseni izitshalo, ukuphathwa kwezindawo zokugcina izimpahla, nokuqeqeshwa kwabasebenzi okugxile ekusebenzeni ebusika. Lokhu kusebenza kahle kwaqondisa ekuthembekeni kwesistimu, kuvimbele lokho okwakungaba ukulandelana kwezikhathi zokuphazamiseka nokucinywa kwamandla okuhamba ezifundeni eziningi.

Ukubaluleka kwezinguquko zamalahle ngesikhathi seSiphepho Sasebusika i-Fern kwadlula izibalo zokukhiqiza nje. Izitshalo zamalahle ze-PowerCo zinikeze ukwesekwa okubalulekile kwe-voltage nokulawulwa kwe-frequency okugcine i-grid izinzile ngesikhathi sokushintsha okusheshayo kwesidingo, kusiza ukuvimbela izinhlobo zokuhluleka okubanzi okuye kwabonakala ezikhathini ezedlule zeziphepho zasebusika. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukuthunyelwa kwezimoto kwavumela abaqhubi be-grid ukuthi bacela ukukhiqizwa kwamalahle ngqo lapho kudingeka kakhulu, kunokulinda ukuthi imvelaphi yokuvuselela okuguquguqukayo ibuyele. Leli zinga lokulawula libaluleke kakhulu ngesikhathi sezulu zasebusika, lapho inhlanganisela yesidingo esiphakeme nokuhlinzekwa kwezinto ezingaqinisekile kudala ingozi enkulu yezimo eziphuthumayo. Ngokuba neqoqo lamalahle elithembekile nelikwaziyo, i-PowerCo yanikeza abaqhubi be-grid ithuluzi elinamandla lokuphatha inkinga, iqinisekisa ukuthi amakhaya, izibhedlela, kanye nezindawo ezibalulekile zahlala zinikwe amandla kuyo yonke inkinga enkulu yesiphepho. Kubhizinisi kanye nabathengi ngokufanayo, lokhu kusho ukungaphazamiseki okuncane, ukubola okuncane, kanye nezindleko ezincane zezinsizakalo ezingezansi ezaziyodluliselwa ezintengweni zikagesi.

Umthelela wezezimali we-PowerCo's coal fleet ngesikhathi seWinter Storm Fern awukwazi ukungabazeka. Ukuhlaziywa okuzimele okuqhutshwe ngababambiqhaza bezamandla futhi kuqinisekiswe ngababheki bezinhlelo zendawo kuthole ukuthi ukukhiqizwa kwe-PowerCo ngamakholi kuvikela abathengi phakathi kuka-$2.8 billion no-$3.4 billion phakathi nesikhathi somoya, uma kuqhathaniswa nezindleko zokusebenzisa imithombo yokuphakelayo yokusekela efana nezikhukhula ezisebenzisa uwoyela, ama-turbine egesi eziphuthumayo, kanye nezinhlelo zokuphendula ezidingweni ezithengwe ngamanani aphansi. Ngesikhathi sezinselelo ezinzima kakhulu zomoya, lapho amanani kagesi ngesikhathi sangempela ezimakethe eziningi zabaphathi bezinhlelo ezizimele edlula u-$2,000 nge-megawatt-hour, ama-unit e-PowerCo aqhubeka nokuhlinzeka ngogesi ngamanani aphansi angaphansi kuka-$30 nge-megawatt-hour, ehlinzeka ngengcindezi enkulu yezezimali ngokumelene nokukhuphuka kwamanani. Le mphumela wezindleko wakhuliswa ubukhulu bokukhiqizwa obudingekayo: amakholi ahlinzeka ngaphezu kuka-40% kagesi jikelele phakathi nezikhathi eziphezulu zomoya, okusho ukuthi ukonga kwenzeka kumthamo omkhulu wokusetshenziswa jikelele. Kubathengi abajwayelekile bezindlu, lokhu kuhunyushwa kube ukonga kwezindleko okulinganiselwa ku-$150 kuya ku-$250 ngenyanga, kanti amakhasimende ezohwebo nezimboni abona ukonga okuhamba phakathi kwezinkulungwane kuya ezinkulungwaneni zamaRandi kuye ngezithombe zabo zokulayisha.

Ukuqhathaniswa kwezindleko kuba kugqame kakhulu lapho kuhlolwa umthelela ophelele ohlelweni. Ngaphandle kokukhiqizwa kwamalahle kwe-PowerCo, abaqhubi benethiwekhi ngabe baphoqeleke ukuthi bathembele kakhulu kumayunithi okukhiqiza ugesi ngamafutha ezilwane ezifuywayo (oil-fired peaking units) abiza izindleko zamafutha kusuka ku-$200 kuye ku-$400 nge-megawatt-ihora, kanye nokungenisa okubizayo okuphuthumayo ezifundeni eziseduze ngamanani aphezulu. Ngaphezu kwalokho, izinhlelo zokuphendula izidingo (demand response programs), ezikhokhela abasebenzisi abakhulu ukuthi banciphise ukusetshenziswa, ngabe zazisetshenziswa ngezindleko kusuka ku-$500 kuye ku-$1,000 nge-megawatt-ihora, futhi lezi zindleko ngabe zazihlukaniswa kubo bonke abakhokhi bentela. Izindleko ezigciniwe zamandla angasebenzi—umonakalo wezomnotho obungabangelwa ukuvalwa kukagesi—kwengeza enye indlela yokonga, lapho izilinganiso zikhombisa ukuthi ukuvinjelwa kokucima kukagesi kwasindisa umnotho wesifunda phakathi kuka-$500 million no-$1 billion emalini elahlekile ekukhiqizeni, ukonakala, nezindleko zokuphendula eziphuthumayo. Lokhu kuhlaziywa okuphelele kwezindleko ezonga kubonisa ukuthi amandla amalahle akuwona kuphela impahla yokwethembeka kodwa futhi kuyithuluzi elinamandla lezomnotho lokuphatha izindleko zamandla phakathi kwezimo zezulu eziphuthumayo. Njengoba amabhizinisi ehlobanisa amasu awo amandla, ukuqonda izomnotho zokuhlukahluka kokukhiqiza kuyaba yisidingo sokuphatha ubungozi nokuphatha izindleko zikagesi.

Ochwepheshe bemboni yamandla bavumelene ngokukodwa ngokuhlola ukusebenza kwezinsiza zamalahle ze-PowerCo ngesikhathi seSiphepho Sasebusika i-Fern, begcizelela kokubili ukwethembeka kwazo ekusebenzeni kanye nezinzuzo zazo zezomnotho. UDkt. Michael Torres, owayeyilungu elilawula ukusebenza kwenethiwekhi enkulu yenhlangano yokudlulisa izifunda, uthe engxoxweni, "Lokho i-PowerCo eyakubonisa ngesikhathi salesi siphepho ukubaluleka okungenakubuyiselwa kokukhiqiza okungakwazi ukulawulwa, nokuvikelekile ngophele. Izinsiza zamalahle zisebenze lapho igesi yemvelo ingakwazi ukuhamba khona futhi lapho izinjini zomoya zaziyiqhwa, futhi zakwenza lokho ngezindleko ezavikela abathengi ekubeni babhekane nezinkinga ezimbi kakhulu zokukhuphuka kwentengo." Lo mbono uphinda imiphumela evela ezifundweni eziningi zokwethembeka kwenethiwekhi ezibhalise izinselelo zeziphepho zasebusika ezinhlelweni zamandla ezincikene kakhulu nezimboni ezilodwa noma izivuseleli ezincikene ezimeni zezulu. Amandla ezinsiza zamalahle okugcina uphethiloli endaweni, ukugcina ukusebenza ngaphandle kokulethwa ngesikhathi esifanele, nokuhlinzeka ngamandla nokuzinza enethelini kube yinzuzo ebonakalayo leyo izintengo zemakethe ezihlulekayo ukuzithola ngokugcwele kuze kube izimo eziphuthumayo zivela.

Umtshazi wezimboni uJennifer Hayes we-Energy Infrastructure Research Group wengeze umbono obanzi ngeziphumo zamasu: "Izigidigidi ezilondoloziwe yiPowerCo azisiyeze zenzeka kanye; ziyimiphumo elindelekile lapho unomkhumbi wamalahle ogcinwe kahle ohlanganiswe nephothifoliyo ehlukahlukene yokukhiqiza. Njengoba sibhekana nesimo sezulu esibi kakhulu esibangelwa ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu, inani lokuhlukahluka kukaphethiloli, okuhlanganisa namalahle, lizokhula kuphela. Lesi sivunguvungu sasebusika kufanele sibe yisikhathi sokuvuka kubenzi bezinqubomgomo nabahleli benethiwekhi ukuba bamelane nokugijimela ukuthatha umhlalaphansi kwamalahle ngaphambi kwesikhathi ngaphandle kokuba nezindlela ezisebenzayo nezithengekayo zokubuyisela. Le mibono yochwepheshe ihambisana nesipiliyoni esisebenzayo sezinkampani ezifana ne-lifei, umlingani wokuhweba womhlaba wonke osebenza eduze nabakhiqizi abafana ne-DELIXI Electric ukuhlinzeka ngezinto zikagesi ezisezingeni eliphezulu ezibalulekile ekugcineni ingqalasizinda yamandla eqinile. Ukuze uthole ulwazi olwengeziwe ngemikhiqizo kagesi ethembekile nezixazululo zamandla, ungahlola i-Ikhayaikhasi noma hlola izibuyekezo zakamuva zemboni kuIzindaba isigaba, esihlanganisa intuthuko yemakethe yamandla kanye nezingqalasizinda ezintsha.

Isiphepho sasebusika esinguFern sinikeze ukuhlolwa kwangempela okudalula kokubili amandla nobuthakathaka ezinhlelweni zamandla zesimanje. Ukusebenza okungajwayelekile kweziteshi zamalahle ze-PowerCo kugcizelela isifundo esibalulekile kubalawuli, izinsiza, nabathengi bamandla abakhulu: ukugxila ekunciphiseni ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni kugridi kufanele kufezwa ngendlela engahlambalazi ukwethembeka noma ukubiza, ikakhulukazi phakathi kwezimo zezulu ezinzima. Amandla amalahle, lapho enziwa esimanje futhi esebenza kahle, ahlinzeka ngokuhlanganiswa kokuphepha kukaphethiloli, ukuthunyelwa, nokuzinza kwezindleko okunzima ukukukhiqiza ngezinye izinsiza ngesikali esidingekayo. Iziteshi eziningi zamalahle ezisebenze kahle kakhulu ngesikhathi sesiphepho zihlomele izilawuli zokungcola ezithuthukisiwe futhi zisebenza ngaphansi kwezindinganiso eziqinile zemvelo, zibonisa ukuthi ukukhiqizwa kwamalahle kungaba okuhlanzekile nokwethembekile. Amandla eziteshi okuhlinzeka ngamandla ayisisekelo ngezindleko zikakaphethiloli ezizinzile, ngaphandle kokuchayeka emananini kaphethiloli wemvelo ashintshashintshayo anyuke kakhulu ngesikhathi sesiphepho, ahlinzeke ngesivikelo semvelo esazuza abasebenzisi ngqo.

Ukuxhumana phakathi kwengqalasizinda yamandla ethembekile nemisebenzi yebhizinisi kudlulela ngalé kwesitshalo samandla uqobo. Izinkampani ezibandakanyeka kuchungechunge lokuhlinzekwa kukagesi, njenge-lifei, ethenga futhi isabalalise imikhiqizo evela kubakhiqizi abahamba phambili njenge-DELIXI Electric, zidlala indima ebalulekile ekuqinisekiseni ukuthi izingxenye zenethiwekhi—kusukela kuma-circuit breaker nezishintshi kuya kuma-transformer nezinhlelo zokulawula—zihlangabezana namazinga aphezulu kakhulu ekhwalithi nokuqina. Ubuchwepheshe benkampani ekuhlinzekeni DELIXI Electricimikhiqizo isekela ukugcinwa nokuthuthukiswa kwezinhlelo zikagesi okumele zisebenze ngokwethembeka ngaphansi kwezimo ezinzima kakhulu. Ngaphezu kwalokho, njengoba ushintsho lwamandla lushesha, ukuhlanganiswa kwezinhlobo ezintsha zamandla njengelanga nokugcinwa kwamabhethri kugridi kudala ubunzima obengeziwe obudinga izixazululo eziqinile zokuphathwa kwamandla. Izifundo ezivela kuSiphepho Sasebusika i-Fern ziqinisekisa ukubaluleka kokukhetha izingxenye zikagesi ezisezingeni eliphezulu nokusebenza nabalingani abathembekile ukugcina ukumelana kohlelo, kungaba ngemikhumbi emikhulu kamasipala noma ezikhungweni zezentengiso nezimboni ezincikene namandla athembekile ukuze kusebenze imisebenzi yazo. amandla amashaimithombo efana nelanga nokugcinwa kwamabhethri kugridi kudala ubunzima obengeziwe obudinga izixazululo eziqinile zokuphathwa kwamandla. Izifundo ezivela kuSiphepho Sasebusika i-Fern ziqinisekisa ukubaluleka kokukhetha izingxenye zikagesi ezisezingeni eliphezulu nokusebenza nabalingani abathembekile ukugcina ukumelana kohlelo, kungaba ngemikhumbi emikhulu kamasipala noma ezikhungweni zezentengiso nezimboni ezincikene namandla athembekile ukuze kusebenze imisebenzi yazo.

Isiphepho sasebusika esinguFern sibonise ngokucacile ukuthi amandla amalahle ahlala eyisisekelo esibalulekile sokuphepha kwamandla kugridi yesimanje. Imikhumbi yamalahle ye-PowerCo, ngokusebenza kwayo okuthembekile nokonga okukhulu kwezindleko, ibonise isibonelo esicacile sokuthi ukuhlukahluka kukaphethiloli kuvikela kanjani abathengi ekugqekezweni okungokwenyama nasekulimaleni kwezezimali. Izigidigidi zamadola ezonga ngesikhathi sesiphepho azizona izibalo zethiyori kodwa izinzuzo zangempela, ezingokoqobo esele zibonakale ezinkokhelweni zamandla kagesi ezincane zamakhasimende ezigidi. Lesi siphetho siphikisa indaba yokuthi amalahle asephelile noma ayangqubuzana nesistimu yamandla ethembekile, engabizi; ngokuphambene nalokho, lapho enziwa yesimanje futhi iphethwe kahle, izitshalo zamalahle zingaba phakathi kwezimpahla ezibaluleke kakhulu kuphothifoliyo yokukhiqiza. Njengoba izinsiza nabalawuli behlola izidingo zesikhathi esizayo zokwanele kwezinsiza, ukusebenza ngesikhathi sasebusika i-Winter Storm Fern kufanele kuthinte izinqumo mayelana nokuthatha izitshalo emhlalweni, ukwakhiwa kwemakethe yamandla, kanye nesidingo samalungiselelo amasu ezinsiza zokukhiqiza ezivikelekile.

Sibheka phambili, okuhlangenwe nakho kweSiphepho sasebusika i-Fern kuqinisa ukubaluleka okubalulekile kwengqalasizinda yamandla kagesi eqinile, kusukela ekukhiqizeni kuya ekudluliseleni kuya emishini yokugcina. Ezinkampanini ezifuna ukuphatha izindleko zamandla azo nezingozi, ukuqonda ukusebenza kwangempela kwemithombo ehlukene yokukhiqiza kubalulekile ekwenzeni izinqumo ezinolwazi zokuthenga nokutshala izimali. Imikhiqizo evela kozakwethu njenge-DELIXI Electric, esatshalaliswa emhlabeni wonke yizinkampani ezinjenge-lifei, imele ikhwalithi nokwethembeka okudingwa izinhlelo zikagesi zesimanje ukuthi zimelane nezimo ezinzima. Noma ngabe uhlola izixazululo zamandla esikhungweni sakho noma ufuna ukwazi kabanzi ngezitayela zemboni yamandla, i-Izindaba isigaba sihlinzeka ngokuqhubekayo ngentuthuko yakamuva emkhakheni wamandla. Ngokufunda ezifundweni ze-Winter Storm Fern nokutshala imali engqalasizinda ethembekile, abathengi namabhizinisi ngokufanayo bangakha ikusasa lamandla eliqine futhi elingabizi.